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Leverage: I have $1. It costs 4% to borrow $75. But I think I can make 5% on an investment. So I borrow $75 at 4% and, if everything works out, I make ($76 * 5% - $75 * 4% = ) $0.80. Multiply by billions. Then lose $76 billion dollars. Oops.
Credit Default Swaps: Think insurance. I have a bond with XYZ Company. But I want to be sure about my return, so I go to someone selling these insurance policies and I say, I'll pay you 4% a year of the value of my bond. If XYZ defaults on the bond, you pay me the full value of the bond.
Credit Default Swaps Gone Bad: The thing is, it's not exactly like insurance. Especially in that, you don't need the bond in order to get the insurance. I can buy a CDS on XYZ company without owning the bond. And if they go under, I get the value of the bond. Does that sound like you're betting that XYZ will default on the bond? That's because you are. Oh, and this is all private. So unlike stocks, no one else knows who has CDSs on whom.
Credit Default Swaps Gone Even Worse -- Netting: I want to cover my ass. So, I buy a billion-dollar CDS on XYZ company without owning the bond, at a rate of 2%. Then, when XYZ company starts to look more likely to default, I sell a CDS on them for the same amount, but at 4%. That way, I'm paying $20 million but I'm being paid $40 million. I'm ahead $20 million, and even if the bond is defaults, I just shunt money from one person to another, and I'm in the clear.
There is a big problem here, you can imagine. If one person doesn't pay up when their CDS comes due, and everyone else has shored up their position by netting like this, a loss of a billion dollars goes from person to person very quickly. And, just like they taught you in sex ed, you don't have a CDS with just the person you bought it from, but from everyone they have CDSs from. And so on down the chain.
And of course, the whole prospect becomes riskier when everyone is leveraging in order to afford these deals.
So, if one part of this chain of CDSs goes down because of, say, a historic drop in housing prices undoing an entire market of mortgage-backed securities (surely a rare, if not impossible situation), the whole system comes crashing down, large monolithic corporations lose billions of dollars, the credit market seizes up, and no one can borrow money anymore to keep their day-to-day business operations going.
Feeling optimistic yet?
I think I'm going to try to sleep now.
I love the accompanying video. "We tried many flavors and many apples..." The possible reasons starting down this road are both numerous and hilarious.
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October 07, 2008 -- 11:33 AM
posted by Par
I'm home sick today, so instead of sleeping (which I should) or working on my Carms application (which I should) or studying for my exam on Friday (which I should), I'm, naturally, learning scary, scary shit about this economic crisis.
If you have an hour, this episode of This American Life is both informative and frightening. They had a previous episode where they explained what went wrong with subprime mortgages and why that was bad. What's gone wrong now is both a consequence and unrelated to subprime and is much worse.
I was going to try to put things in a nutshell by explaining that it's all a combination of the Law of Unintended Consequences and that there really is no such thing as a free lunch, but Megan McArdle explains all the logical biases involved far better than I could.
Here's the short version of the proximal causes, though:
There is a big problem here, you can imagine. If one person doesn't pay up when their CDS comes due, and everyone else has shored up their position by netting like this, a loss of a billion dollars goes from person to person very quickly. And, just like they taught you in sex ed, you don't have a CDS with just the person you bought it from, but from everyone they have CDSs from. And so on down the chain.
And of course, the whole prospect becomes riskier when everyone is leveraging in order to afford these deals.
So, if one part of this chain of CDSs goes down because of, say, a historic drop in housing prices undoing an entire market of mortgage-backed securities (surely a rare, if not impossible situation), the whole system comes crashing down, large monolithic corporations lose billions of dollars, the credit market seizes up, and no one can borrow money anymore to keep their day-to-day business operations going.
Feeling optimistic yet?
I think I'm going to try to sleep now.
October 06, 2008 -- 4:12 PM
posted by mary
I'd be up for that Tony
October 04, 2008 -- 5:47 PM
posted by Tonestar Runner
So, who can I persuade to join me to see the FemBots when they're in town on the 25th? (I think they're playing at the Pawn Shop or something.)
FemBots - Count Down Our Days
October 04, 2008 -- 11:59 AM
posted by Par
How Is A GrÄpple® Brand Apple Made?
GrÄpple® brand apples begin either as Washington Extra Fancy Gala or Fuji Apples, depending upon the season. These "premium apples" are the ones that take on the grape flavor best. This Patent Pending process is complex and the ingredient mix primarily includes concentrated grape flavor and pure water. All ingredients are USDA and FDA approved and the process has been licensed by the Washington State Department of Agriculture.
There is nothing but flavor being infused into the apple. A relaxing bathing process prepares our apples for you or your kids. The apple takes on no additional sugars or calories. They are not genetically altered in any way. The apple is as healthy as ever but now has the new exciting grape flavor.
I love the accompanying video. "We tried many flavors and many apples..." The possible reasons starting down this road are both numerous and hilarious.
October 04, 2008 -- 1:24 AM
posted by Jere
Is anyone else that watched the oilers game last night also gritting their teeth everytime you hear the name "glencross"?
October 03, 2008 -- 7:41 AM
posted by Lives with Jess
I never read "The Secret", but I bet it says that if you can imagine someone being dumb enough to do something, it will happen. I recently was in a car with GPS navigation, and thought, "wow, this could cause some serious problems if you were really dumb." Well...
I think the funniest part is how polite and understanding the cop seems to be.
October 02, 2008 -- 8:03 AM
posted by Al
If the movie could be compared to an author's writing I'm pretty sure Mr Ed Woods would win the first prize for a "Bad Writing Competition".
October 01, 2008 -- 10:26 PM
posted by Jess
Nothing is more discouraging than looking up the author whose work you are about to read and finding this:
"Bhabha has been criticized for using indecipherable jargon and dense prose. In 1998 the journal Philosophy and Literature awarded Bhabha second prize in its "Bad Writing Competition,"[5] which "celebrates bad writing from the most stylistically lamentable passages found in scholarly books and articles." Bhabha was awarded the prize for a sentence in his The Location of Culture (Routledge, 1994). . . "
Unless it is 10:25 pm the night before the chapters need to be read and you realize that the prize was indeed awarded for the exact book you are about to read a part of.
Fuck. Hope you're all enjoying bad movie night.
October 01, 2008 -- 4:59 PM
posted by Par
No kidding, Al. How about this? (The second video in this post)
She has been a mayor, she's been overseer of billions - I don't know how many billions of dollars of natural resources, she's been a member of the PTA, she's been a governor, she's been a mayor . . .
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